- The centrality of prediction to all decision making
- Real forecasting versus punditry
- The ‘fake supply’ of bogus and unverifiable forecasts
- Foxes and hedgehogs
- The ‘no change’ benchmark
- Cognitive styles and biases
- The importance of forecast track records
- The case for prediction markets
- Why organisations often don’t want accurate forecasts
- DARPA’s ill-fated Policy Analysis Market
Anyone interested in forecasting and prediction who doesn’t know the work of Tetlock, Taleb, or Hanson should chase up the above links.
Related Analyst First posts:
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