That is the title of a highly recommended hour-long Freakonomics podcast which includes interviews with Philip Tetlock, Robin Hanson, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Among subjects covered are:

  • The centrality of prediction to all decision making
  • Real forecasting versus punditry
  • The ‘fake supply’ of bogus and unverifiable forecasts
  • Foxes and hedgehogs
  • The ‘no change’ benchmark
  • Cognitive styles and biases
  • The importance of forecast track records
  • The case for prediction markets
  • Why organisations often don’t want accurate forecasts
  • DARPA’s ill-fated Policy Analysis Market

Anyone interested in forecasting and prediction who doesn’t know the work of Tetlock, Taleb, or Hanson should chase up the above links.

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