*The Folly of Prediction*

That is the title of a highly recommended hour-long Freakonomics podcast which includes interviews with Philip Tetlock, Robin Hanson, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Among subjects covered are:

• The centrality of prediction to all decision making
• Real forecasting versus punditry
• The ‘fake supply’ of bogus and unverifiable forecasts
• Foxes and hedgehogs
• The ‘no change’ benchmark
• Cognitive styles and biases
• The importance of forecast track records
• The case for prediction markets
• Why organisations often don’t want accurate forecasts
• DARPA’s ill-fated Policy Analysis Market

Anyone interested in forecasting and prediction who doesn’t know the work of Tetlock, Taleb, or Hanson should chase up the above links.

Related Analyst First posts:

• Forecasting, goal setting, planning
• Forecast error versus execution error
• *What’s Wrong with Expert Prediction*
• *What’s Wrong with Expert Prediction* – Commentary