One further reflection on Cato Unbound’s What’s Wrong with Expert Predictions debate (see here and here) is that Gardner and Tetlock are correct in the aggregate while Cochrane is correct regarding the particular. A hedgehog who’s right is the ideal expert – Cochrane cites Milton Friedman on stagflation as an example. The problem is, most hedgehogs are wrong most of the time, hence the better performance of foxes overall.

This again underscores the value of hedgehogs as visionaries and hypothesis generators, and the corresponding importance of calibrating, counterweighting foxes. Any expert-reliant forecasting function needs to make room for both.

Mango Hedgehog

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